Abstract: Through multiple international initiatives, including the creation of the Arctic Council at the end of the Cold War in 1996, the Arctic appeared to be one of the last areas of peaceful cooperation in the world till February 2022. This Arctic is also devoid of any serious territorial dispute between the neighboring countries, some of which are nevertheless great powers: Russia, the United States, Canada, but also Sweden, Norway, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland and Finland.

However, even before the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, this peaceful cooperation was not exempt from strategic rivalries: these States in the Arctic have been redefining their strategic postures, notably through the publication of roadmaps and the deployment of new military forces trained to fight in this hostile environment. Russia thus remains the dominant power in the Arctic, in the face of a China with growing ambitions and a Western world – represented by the United States – which is lagging after years concentrated on other military conflicts. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine also carries the germs of a broader destabilization of the region. Conventional competition is therefore renewed between these great powers, while the nuclear balance is partially maintained. It is indeed worth noticing that the Arctic is an area of direct contact between the Russian Federation and the United States. As such, it had a special significance during the Cold War as the shortest route between both adversaries for a potential ballistic missile and was a privileged position for deploying chains of radars and advanced detection systems.

Finally, the shrinkage of the ice pack caused by global warming is also triggering the neighboring or more distant states’ greed, whether through the drilling possibilities for raw materials under the ice floe or the creation of new maritime routes. The latter would notably enable Russia to revitalize its northern flank and offer alternatives to existing transit routes.

Bio: Jean-Louis Lozier is an Advisor to Ifri's Security Studies Center and a former naval officer who served during 39 years in the French Navy. He left active duty in August 2020. He entered the naval academy in 1981. His career at sea has been mainly onboard submarines. He commanded one SSN (1997-1999) and two SSBNs (2004-2006). Jean-Louis Lozier attended the staff course (ACSC3) in the UK, holds a MA in defense studies from King’s college, and attended the NATO defense college senior course 113.
Promoted flag officer in 2012, he held during eight years high responsibility assignments, among them head of the nuclear forces directorate (2012-2014) and inspector of nuclear weapons (2014-2015). As vice-admiral, he was from 2018 to 2020 « préfet maritime de l’Atlantique » (coordination of governmental action at sea) and commanding operations in the Atlantic and Arctic areas.

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